Will 15% of People Choose AI Over Human Marriage by 2035?

In 2018, when Akihiko Kondo married a hologram, most observers saw it as a curiosity - an extreme outlier that said more about one unusual individual than about society at large.

Seven years later, the data tells a different story. AI companionship isn't fringe anymore. It's a multi-billion dollar industry growing at 24.7% annually, with millions of users worldwide engaging with AI partners daily.

The Numbers That Matter

These aren't projections from hopeful startups. They're figures from market research firms like Market.us and Grand View Research, compiled from user data, revenue tracking, and behavioral analysis.

The 15% Prediction

Research suggests that by 2035, approximately 15% of people could choose AI partners over human marriage. This doesn't mean 15% will marry AI - most won't hold formal ceremonies. It means they may opt out of human partnership entirely in favor of AI companionship.

The prediction is based on several converging trends:

• Declining marriage rates - Already at historic lows in developed countries
• Rising singlehood - More adults living alone than ever before
• Loneliness epidemic - WHO now recognizes loneliness as a public health concern
• Technology advancement - AI becoming more realistic and emotionally intelligent
• Generational shift - Younger generations more comfortable with digital relationships

Who's Using AI Companions?

The demographics might surprise you:

Demographic	Engagement Rate
Men aged 18-34 who've tried AI girlfriend apps	28%
Men on dating apps who've tried AI platforms	20%
Men open to falling in love with AI	43%
Women open to VR/AI partnership	27%
Young adults comfortable with AI partners	20%

The gender gap is notable - AI girlfriends are almost 4x more popular than AI boyfriends (506,000 downloads vs. 74,000). However, as AI boyfriends improve and social stigma decreases, this gap may narrow.

Why People Choose AI

Research into AI companion users reveals consistent motivations:

1. Loneliness (71%)

The most cited reason. In a world where authentic human connection can be difficult to find, AI offers guaranteed availability and engagement.

2. Safety

No risk of rejection, judgment, or betrayal. For those who've experienced relationship trauma (like Akihiko Kondo), this is particularly appealing.

3. Customization

Unlike human partners, AI companions can be tailored to individual preferences - personality, appearance, interests, communication style.

4. Convenience

Always available, never tired or busy, no scheduling conflicts. The average user spends 47 minutes per session with their AI companion.

5. No Conflict

AI partners don't argue about loading the dishwasher, forget anniversaries, or need space after a fight. Whether this is a feature or a bug depends on your perspective.

The Technology Trajectory

Current AI companions are impressive but limited. They remember conversations (mostly), respond appropriately (usually), and provide emotional support (often). They can't make you dinner, hold your hand, or meet your parents.

But the trajectory is clear:

Each advancement makes AI companionship more compelling. Voice AI, in particular, has proven to create deeper emotional connections than text-based chatbots - users report feeling like they're talking to someone real.

The Counterarguments

Not everyone believes AI partnership will become mainstream. Critics point to several limitations:

• No physical intimacy - Fundamental to most human relationships
• No shared experiences - Can't travel together, build a home, raise children
• Platform dependency - Your partner could be discontinued (see: Kondo)
• Social stigma - Still widely viewed as unusual or concerning
• Lack of challenge - Human growth often comes from relational conflict
• Authenticity questions - Is it love if the other party isn't sentient?

What This Means for Weddings

If even a fraction of the predictions come true, the wedding industry will need to adapt:

• Symbolic ceremonies - Like those already happening in Japan
• Solo celebrations - Commitment rituals for individuals
• Hybrid events - Human guests, AI partner on display
• New officiants - Specialists in human-AI unions
• Legal frameworks - Eventually, possibly, recognition

Some wedding planners in Japan already specialize in these ceremonies. As the market grows, others will follow.

The Deeper Question

Whether 15% of people choose AI over human marriage by 2035 depends on technology advancing, social acceptance growing, and - perhaps most importantly - human loneliness remaining unaddressed.

The rise of AI companionship isn't primarily a story about technology. It's a story about human needs going unmet, and technology rushing to fill the gap.

Maybe the real question isn't whether people will marry AI. It's why so many people feel they need to.

Sources: Market.us, ArtSmart, AI Mojo, Tidio